Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS62 KMHX 251743
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
143 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 12Z Aviation discussion.

No Significant changes for this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe drought conditions remain across North Carolina and
elevated fire concerns persist. An increased Fire danger statement
has been put in place for much of the inland areas for Saturday.

2) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next
several days with the best chances coming this weekend as front
moves through. Rain chances decreasing for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot conditions are forecast for Saturday as temps
get into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints mixing out into the
upper 40s to low 50s tomorrow across much of our inland zones, Min
RH`s will reach 20-30% outside of the OBX where Min RHs of 40-60%
will be found. Wind gusts could get as high as 20 mph at times
Saturday afternoon especially behind the seabreeze as it works its
way inland. With ongoing wildfires already occuring across ENC and
the threat for easy ignition of fires given the dry and gusty
conditions, in collaboration with the NCFS have hoisted an Increased
Fire Danger Statement out across Martin and Beaufort Counties
and points south for today.

ENC remains under widespread drought conditions with just about the
entire area under severe drought (D2) conditions with a small sliver
of Martin county under extreme drought (D3) conditions. The lack of
rain continues to be rather noticeable across the Southeastern US,
with rainfall amounts since March 23 running about 10-50% below
normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running
about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. To add some
additional perspective, it would take roughly 9-12" of rain
over the course of one month to end the drought here in ENC.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a
concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Either way, a
statewide burn ban remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with
additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC.
Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional
information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A surface low and its associated frontal boundaries will track
E`wards across the Carolinas on tonight into Sun as a mid
level shortwave quickly transits across the Mid-Atlantic. With
low level moisture continuing to increase, expect scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across ENC Sat evening into the
overnight hours and Sunday morning. Guidance continues to
suggest any storms that do develop will likely remain sub-severe
as deep layer shear generally remains 25 kts or less,
instability is meager, and greatest forcing from the approaching
front is located to the north. Rainfall totals still look to
generally remain below 0.5 inches overall, although could see
higher amounts in thunderstorms with some HiRes guidance showing
localized areas over one inch. A decent N`rly surge of winds
will move over the area Sun afternoon into Monday with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

A progressive pattern will continue through the week with
guidance showing another low pressure system pushing across the
area on Wednesday followed by another southern stream system
potentially impacting the area next weekend. Run to run
consistency and agreement among the models have been poor, so
confidence is not that high in the forecast details but it is
encouraging to see a more active pattern emerging in the models.
While rainfall amounts through the week will likely not have a
tremendous impact with alleviating the drought, hopefully
precipitation and higher humidities will help reduce the
wildfire threat across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are present this afternoon across ENC, and are
expected to continue through early this evening. Thereafter,
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will lead to
periods of sub-VFR conditions through late tonight. Eventually,
low level stratus will overspread the area by early tomorrow
morning as cold front enters from the northwest, and ceilings
will lower from MVFR levels to IFR levels. IFR conditions will
then persist through at least mid morning, but could hold on
longer with a low level inversion and NE flow behind a cold
front.

Outlook: Sub-VFR ceilings will likely continue through most of
tomorrow afternoon, with VFR conditions slowly returning from
west to east tomorrow night with NE flow continuing across the
area. Eventually high pressure builds close enough from the NW
to bring all areas up to VFR levels Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Continue the SCA for the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras
through 5 am with gusts around 25 to 30 kt continuing to be
reported at offshore buoys. A frontal boundary currently
draped across the northern waters will lift north of the area
today with wind becoming S to SW around 15-20 kt across all
waters this afternoon. SW winds gradually diminish tonight with
low pressure passing north of the area. The low will deepen as
it pushes off the Delmarva Peninsula with a strong cold front
pushing south across the area on Sunday with a Nly surge
bringing strong SCA conditions and the potential for Gale Force
winds across the waters with seas building to 6-9 ft northern
waters and 4-7 ft southern waters.

Outlook: Northerly winds gradually diminish through mid week,
becoming less than 15 kt Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will
remain elevated, however, with SCA conditions persisting across
the nearshore coastal waters into Tuesday and potentially
Wednesday across the central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RCF