Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS62 KMHX 131138
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
638 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Reintroduced rain/snow mentions inland along the cold front
Thursday morning, although wintry precip impacts are still not
expected. Small craft advisories issued Tuesday night to
Thursday for coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures this morning with a gradual warming trend
today into Wednesday

2) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow

3) Generally dry cold front moves through early Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with gale force
winds possible Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the region has allowed for good
radiational cooling conditions this morning with light/calm
winds and clear skies. Lows expected in the mid to upper 20s
inland to 30s along the coast around sunrise. Some inland
locations have even dropped into the lower 20s. NBM temps are
too warm in this scenario and followed closely to MOS guidance
with manual adjustments for the peak radiational cooling
locales.

High pressure slides offshore today with southwest winds
bringing a warming trend with temps climbing to near 60 today
and tomorrow afternoon, which is a few degrees above
climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
will be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue likely
PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance is not
that impressive with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the coast to little accumulation
inland. All liquid precip expected through Wednesday night.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture remains that we could see a rain/snow
mix inland with frontal forcing becoming all rain closer to the
coast along the front, but rain amounts expected to be limited,
only up to a tenth of an inch at best. Any snow mixed in is not
expected to accumulate, and no wintry precip impacts are
expected. Strong CAA develops behind the front later Thursday
morning but it appears this will be a typical cold air chasing
the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday afternoon. For this
reason, stepped down from NBM chance snow to slight chance,
with room to step down even further.

The upper level trough axis pushes across the region Thursday
evening bringing descent forcing but by this time moisture will
be limited. However, coastal locations could see a brief period
of rain/snow. Guidance has been trending drier and NBM probs
are less than 25% for any accumulation precipitation, for either
rain or snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%). NBM called for snow
chances, but with sfc temps in the 40-45F range at that time,
paired with the drier trend, elected to stick with all rain for
the forecast. Behind the front, below average temps and dry
conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No changes in forecast thinking as VFR conditions are forecast
through the entire period as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. Light and variable to calm winds this morning become
SW`rly at about 5-10 kts with gusts up around 10-15 kts by
midday. These winds will persist into Tue evening before winds
become light and variable once again Tue night. Skies remain
partly cloudy through the period. While currently not in the
TAFs on this update, monitoring the forecast for potential LLWS
impacts in ENC late tonight into Wed morning. While it is a low
threat, some guidance is showing some LLWS impacting portions
of ENC late tonight as a mid level shortwave moves through the
area. If confidence increases in its occurrence, a line for
this may be included in the TAFs in the coming updates.

Outlook: Pred VFR flight cats expected through much of the
period with high pressure in control. While there is still
uncertainty, a low pressure system Wednesday and Thursday could
bring precip, lower ceilings, and gusty winds with it.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has settled across the waters bringing W/SW winds
around 5-15 kt becoming SW later as high moves offshore. Seas
have also laid off, around 2ft across all coastal waters.
Tonight, winds begin to pick up as a low crosses the great lakes
and high pressure sits offshore, tightening the pressure
gradient. This will bring gusts around 25kts for the warmer gulf
stream waters tonight. Issued a SCA for gulf stream waters given
6Z guidance increased confidence in SCA gusts. For now have SCA
going until Friday 00Z, at which point gale force gust chances
increase.

Winds briefly lessen to 15-20 knots Wednesday morning for 3-6
hours before picking back up to 20-30 knots as a low forms
offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing small
craft gusts with this low is along warmer gulf stream waters
with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter
wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA to Gale Force conditions
across the waters. Conditions improve late in the week with high
pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another
cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once
again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK/RJ