Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS62 KMHX 071936
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
336 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine headlines have been adjusted based on the latest wind
and wave guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and mostly dry conditions continue today, along with an
increased fire danger for all of ENC.

2) Low-end thunderstorm risk this evening into Monday
afternoon.

3) Risk of dangerous heat later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Toasty, above normal temperatures will flirt
with records across inland zones this afternoon as ENC resides
under notably warm low-level thicknesses in a southwest low-
level flow regime. See the CLIMATE section below for additional
information on today`s records.

With ongoing drought conditions, today`s heat will continue to
support elevated fire concerns areawide. In coordination with
the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect until
8 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will slide south through Virginia
today and is forecast to reach NE NC by late this evening.
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along
the front tonight, generally in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264
corridor, but the environment will become less favorable by this
time, therefore minimizing the severe threat. The front will
then continue to move south across ENC tomorrow, veering the
winds to the NE through the day. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon south
of HWY 70, but modest instability and weak shear will keep the
severe threat at bay.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence is increasing for dangerous heat to
impact the area later this week and into this weekend (Thursday -
Saturday). An increase in humidity will make the feels like
temperatures soar into the 100-105+ degree range, which could
eventually lead to a Heat Advisory being needed for portions of
the area away from the immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. For the rest of
this afternoon, we`ll see gusty southwest winds (15-20 kt) with
scattered high clouds and diurnal cu. Tonight, a cold front will
approach the area from the north, veering winds to the north and
supporting a 15-35% chance of scattered showers and weak
thunderstorms in the Albemarle Sound/HWY 264 corridor. Winds
will be out of the northeast areawide by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop around 18z tomorrow south of HWY 70, but modest
instability and weak shear will keep the severe threat at bay.
Any mention of precipitation has been kept out of this TAF
cycle, but chances for seeing anything will be highest for OAJ
(25%). Low stratus may develop tomorrow night/early Tuesday with
a more stable airmass behind the front expected to keep the area
mostly dry through mid-week.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds at 10-20 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt will persist through
this evening before relaxing a bit ahead of a southbound cold
front that will veer the winds to the north overnight and into
tomorrow. The latest guidance favors a quicker drop off of SCA
winds tonight, so remaining headlines for the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and Pamlico Sound have been adjusted
accordingly. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will be out of the NE
at 15-20 kt but gusts should remain below SCA criteria. 3-5 ft
seas are expected across the 0-20 nm zones with 5-7 ft seas
developing north of Cape Hatteras in the 20-60 nm zones tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will move in on Tuesday with good boating
conditions expected for the next several days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 06/07 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      98/2008  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/1988  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    100/2008  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 94/2008  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       99/1914, 2008  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  99/2001  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC