Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

708
FXUS62 KMHX 151119
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
719 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will slowly shift offshore today. High
pressure then builds back into the area this weekend. Details
remain uncertain on the location of and impacts associated with
Erin, but at a minimum rough surf conditions and dangerous rip
currents are expected next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Key Messages

-Unsettled weather continues through Friday

An MCV continues to move through the eastern portion of the state
bringing heavy rain to coastal areas as it slowly pushes eastward
through the morning hours. This coupled with a frontal zone pushing
southward and stalling out over the area will lead to another day of
heavy rain chances and potential flooding issues as many areas have
had plenty of antecedent rainfall. WPC currently has the entire
forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PW values
remain over 2.5 inches. While the risk for heavy rain will be there,
expect coverage to be less, particularly in the late morning to
early afternoon hours when the MCV moves offshore and before
the boundary from the north sinks southward.

While heavy rain remains the largest threat, SPC is maintaining an
area of general thunder as instability will be plentiful by
afternoon, but shear will be hard to come by, keeping most storms
sub-severe.

Expect highs to drop back into the upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Showers and storms may linger in the southwestern counties during
the evening hours but should dissipate before the overnight hours.
As the low pushes further offshore, this should open the door for
some drying out but enough moisture will linger to pose a threat for
fog and low stratus overnight. Lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Wrap around moisture from offshore low may lead to precip
   Saturday.
 - Sunday into midweek, high pressure dries things out.
 - Tropical system Erin, still forecast to remain offshore,
   makes closest pass Wed/Thur.

Saturday...A weakening trough aloft approaches from the W while
Friday`s low slowly sinks SEward offshore. Gulf of America
moisture tap gets turned off, but PWATs still remain around 2in
before drier air gets filtered in from the N Sat evening. SChc
to Chc PoPs along the coast early pushing inland through the
day. Precip becomes confined offshore overnight. Have lowered
PotThunder from NBM with climo showing NEerly flow through
bottom half of column being rather unfavorable for tstorms.
WPC maintains bulk of the area in Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall given amount of rain the region has had over last few
days.

Sunday into Early Next Week...Expansive ridge over central CONUS
dominates the period with drier high pressure building in from
the N with a backdoor front approaching, but remaining well N of
the FA. Clearer skies, building heights, and lack of precip
does mean that temps will warm to more seasonable temps; MaxTs
in upper 80s/low 90s. Can`t completely rule out diurnal
seabreeze precip, but odds are low early in the week, increasing
as the week progresses.

Mid to late next week...Keeping sharp focus on Erin, still
forecast to remain offshore, though there are a few ensemble
members and some deterministic guidance that are Wern outliers.
As of right now, impacts remain limited to marine and coastal
hazards due to strong long period swell arriving in conjunction
with higher astronomical tides. Increased Rip Current threats
through the week at a minimum, with growing chances of coastal
flooding hazards, i.e. ocean overwash and beach erosion,
especially for vulnerable locations with weakened dune
structures. More clouds and precip chances building from midweek
onward.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 720 AM Friday...

SHORT TERM: Most TAF sites have moved between VFR and IFR
through the overnight hours and will continue to jump around,
possibly for some time. Some model guidance keeps ceilings sub
VFR through the TAF period but there should be a break later in
the morning through at least early afternoon depending how
quickly a frontal zone pushes southward and cloud cover reforms
off of this and the sea breeze. Ceilings are expected to return
for late afternoon evening with the chance of heavy rain and
thunderstorms once again in the forecast. Winds will be light
and generally out of the north as the frontal zone sinks south
of the area.


LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Drier conditions expected Saturday through
Monday. Threat of low stratus and some fog continues each
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Thunderstorms continue this evening along the southern coast as a
low pressure system makes its way towards the OBX. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, modest southwesterly flow of 5-15kt is
expected. As the low moves through, winds will become northerly
later tonight through Friday. For now, the most likely scenario is a
weak low to move through, keeping the north to northeast winds at 10-
15kt. However, some guidance suggests a deeper low may develop. If
this occurs, there would be a risk for stronger winds. Seas of 2-4
ft are expected across the coastal waters through Friday.


LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0230 Friday...High pressure builds in for the weekend
bringing N?NEerly winds winds at 10-20kts through Monday. There
is potential for infrequent NE gusts up to 25kts Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning as the pressure gradient
tightens between the incoming high and the weak low sinking
SEward offshore. Strong long period swell from Erin begins
arriving as early as Sunday night. 6ft seas expected by Monday
afternoon. SCA conditions likely for all coastal waters through
the entire week. Seas peak late Wed/early Thursday 10-12ft,
though this number will be highly dependent on Erin`s exact
track/intensity.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RTE/CEB
MARINE...RTE/RM/CEB