Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS62 KMHX 051137
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
737 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Today`s QPF has increased to ~1-1.5"

Today`s winds have increased across land and marine zones

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pre-frontal trough and cold front will bring a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms to the area today and tonight.

2) Prolonged period of below normal temperatures expected behind
the front well into next week.

Marine...Small Craft conditions expected today into Monday
afternoon. Prolonged period of poor marine conditions looking
increasingly likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple rounds of messy showers and
thunderstorms are expected today, which will bring much needed
rain to the area. A pre-frontal trough (and potentially an
outflow boundary from an upstream QLCS) will serve as the
forcing mechanisms for initial convection across the coastal
plain late this afternoon/early this evening (~3-5 PM). The
environment does not look overly impressive during this period
as the best shear and instability will be with the front a few
hours later. However, with model soundings showing an inverted-V
signature, there`s concern for damaging downburst winds. The
synoptic cold front is not forecast to enter the CWA until ~8/9
PM. CAMs are showing the best environment of the day to be along
the front with MUCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and 50+ kt
of 0-6 km shear. Lapse rates appear to be too low to support a
risk for severe hail and modeled hodographs do not favor tornado
potential. Therefore, the main hazard of concern with any storm
today will be damaging wind gusts.

There`s potential for earlier convection to work over the
environment before the front arrives, which would dampen
further destabilization and lower the severe risk in the
evening. Regardless, areas west of Highway 17 will be the best
candidates to see stronger storms given the overlap of severe
ingredients. SPC has our entire CWA under a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) for severe weather.

All of ENC is experiencing severe drought conditions, so
thankfully QPF has continued to trend up. The NWS PPP shows
expected rainfall amounts ranging from 1-1.5" across the CWA
(high end amounts nearing 2" across the coastal plain). NBM
precipitation probabilities have trended up as well:

> 0.5": 75-85%
> 1.0": 25-55%

Higher amounts are likely in thunderstorms, potentially in
excess of 2". Forecast rainfall amounts tend to be overstated
in long-term drought conditions like ours, but the forcing and
deeper moisture with this system appears strong enough to
overcome the antecedent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The front will move offshore early tomorrow
morning and cooler high pressure will build in behind it,
resulting in much cooler highs to kick off the new week (mid to
upper 60s inland/low 60s beaches). A quick, moisture-starved
reinforcing cold front will then move across the area on
Tuesday. Although no rain is expected with this FROPA, the post-
frontal air mass will bring the coldest high temps of the week
on Wednesday (low to mid 60s inland/low 60s beaches). We`ll
moderate thereafter and be back to low 80s inland/low 70s
beaches by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR stratus across far western rtes early this morning will
slowly lift through the morning with VFR expected by midday. SW
winds will gust to around 25-35 kt today as gradients tighten
ahead of a cold front approaching the region. This could produce
cross wind concerns at EWN runway 14R/32L this afternoon.
Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms will move into the area
this afternoon bringing the chance for sub-VFR conditions. There
remains some slight timing differences in the models but
generally show precip moving into western terminals around 18z
give or take an hour and into eastern terminals around 20z.
Sufficient instability and shear present for thunderstorms to
bring the threat of strong wind gusts with an isolated severe
storm possible and SPC has the region in a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) for severe storms. The cold front is progged to push
across the region around 00-06z Sunday with the threat if
thunderstorms diminishing quickly behind the front, but shower
may linger into the early morning hours. Pred VFR conditions
expected to return by late tonight.

Outlook: Pred VFR expected Monday through Thursday with high
pressure over the area, through a dry reinforcing cold front will
push through the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate through the day
ahead of an approaching cold front. By this afternoon, SW winds
will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt and seas will
build to 5-6 ft. Winds will begin to veer to the NW late tonight
and will be out of the N by early tomorrow morning. A slight
reprieve in winds is possible as they veer, but a northerly
post-frontal surge will ramp winds back up to 20-25 kt with
gusts to 25-30+ kt. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft tonight.

It should be noted that there`s a fairly large spread in
guidance in terms of how strong the non-convective gusts will
be today, both pre- and post-frontal. The wind forecast has been
trended up to honor the higher-end of guidance that shows a
larger footprint of Gale force gusts across the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters generally north of Cape Lookout, but all
headlines have been kept as SCAs at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of and with the
front, leaving the door open for convection between early
evening and approximately midnight. Within thunderstorms,
frequent lightning and strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 kt
will be possible.

Gusts should drop below 25 kt by early tomorrow afternoon but
elevated seas may linger across the outer central waters into
tomorrow evening.

Outlook: Once SCAs drop tomorrow, we should remain headline
free until Tuesday evening when the next front is expected to
pass. The latest forecast has NE winds at 20-25 kt with gusts
to 25-30+ kt and 6-9 ft seas Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Behind this front, seas will likely remain elevated through the
rest of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     136-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...OJC