Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS62 KMHX 310115
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure resides offshore ahead of the next cold front to
move through the area on Monday night with showers and a few
storms. High pressure will build in behind this system Tuesday
lasting into late- week. Another front will impact the region
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM Sun...Moisture depth continues to increase
overnight ahead of the approaching cold front as evidenced by
the 00Z MHX RAOB. Srly SFC flow off the Atlantic is producing
Td`s>60. Weak shortwave will ride up the SC coast and towards
the NC coast by late tonight. Currently, isolated shower
activity has developed over the near shore water south of Cape
Hatteras and was tracking along or just inland from the coast at
times this evening. Therefore have 20-30% PoPs to this evenings
forecast. Additional; shower chances ramp up again after
midnight, and esp towards daybreak with best coverage along the
coast. Instability will also be in place, though in elevated
form, so thunderstorms are possible, but will remain below
severe levels. Best chances for storms will be east of Hwy 17,
and esp nearer the Crystal Coast newrd through the OBX zones.
Cont very warm for late March, MinTs mid-60s most. Up-50s NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Sun...For the first part of Mon, the
aforementioned sfc low will cont offshore of the NC coast
bringing ongoing shower and thunderstorm chances, highest
concentration along the coast. Lots of questions concerning
severe risk late in the day but especially Mon night. Current
thinking is that morning activity will delay sfc heating for
ENC, with cloudy skies lingering through early to mid afternoon.
In fact, the afternoon hours should be mainly on the dry side,
with large scale ascent and storm chances delayed until after
around 7-8pm. For this reason, thinking is that severe threat
will be tempered as later arrival means less instability to work
with. This along with a marine layer in place on the coast will
relegate best svr threat west of Highway 17. Svr probs from NCAR
HRRR neural network indicate main severe threat would be winds with
probs as high as (10-15%), with hail and tor threat quite low (<5%).
This jives with ECM EFI probs for CAPE/Shear overlap indices
indicative of a lower end severe threat. Will have to monitor later
forecasts, as more sunshine tomorrow afternoon may lead to more
instability and a somewhat higher severe potential for tomorrow
evening. Highs will be a bit lower due to the cloud cover, with
readings generally 75-80 interior, with low 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Cooler high pressure builds back in behind
frontal system Tuesday and Wednesday before the heat returns
late in the week. Another front will impact the region next
weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain expected to push offshore by the
early Tuesday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds back in
form the north. Highs expected to be on the cooler side for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
inland (low 60s beaches) on Tuesday and low 60s to low 70s Wed.

Thursday600 through Sunday...High pressure will strengthen
offshore late week, with a backdoor front likely impacting the
area late this weekend. Return flow will allow temps to soar
well above normal Thu and Fri...with highs climbing well into
the 80s inland (potentially reaching as high as 90 on Friday)
and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. Still some uncertainty
with frontal boundary likely impacting the area next
weekend...potentially pushing southward into portions of the
area Sat then lifting back northward before pushing through the
area late weekend and early next week as strengthening sfc low
moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Will keep slight chance to
chance pops over the weekend with slightly cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 600 PM Sun...VFR initially, but deteriorating conditions
are expected late this evening. SSWerly winds ~10kt with gusts
approaching but remaining under 20kt through early this evening.
CIGs begin lowering late tonight as lower atms moistens
considerably and disturbance works northward off the coast.
MVFR CIGs overspread the region from SW to NE after midnight
tonight with showers encroaching upon the coast in the early
morning hours, with a 3-5 hr period of IFR cond for Mon
morning, rising back to MVFR mid to late morning. Then a brief
period of VFR is expected from around 20Z until 00Z before the
next batch of showers and storms with the front move through Mon
night. Best chance for rain late tonight and early Mon will be
KEWN and KOAJ, but can`t rule out ocnl rain showers further west
during the morning as well. There also may be a rumble of
thunder or two.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Sub-VFR conditions expected Monday night
coinciding with the best rain chances, with the potential for
sct thunderstorms as well. Some storms may be strong to severe,
with the threats for damaging winds, large hail, and an
isolated tornado. The cold front will move through late Monday
night and early Tue. Sub-VFR cigs may linger through most of Tue
before likely returning to VFR Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 915 PM Sun... No changes to previous thinking. Shower
activity swill inc in coverage later tonight, especially near
GStream, and spread northward into the nearshore waters and
Pamlico Sound towards daybreak. Some sct thunderstorms will
accompany the rain. Srly winds generally around 15 kt with gusts
upwards of around 20 kt through tonight and into Mon, inc to 25
kt over the gulf waters Mon afternoon. For Mon night, have
added Pamlico Sound to the SCA suite for winds >=25kt.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...SSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt Mon night
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few gusts to gale force
will be possible across the outer central waters Mon night. SCAs
now up for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. The front will
push through the waters early Tue morning, with winds becoming
N-NW 10-20 kt behind the front. Winds shift to E-ENE 10-20 kt
Wed. High pressure will strengthen offshore Thu with modest
return flow redeveloping, SSW 10-20 kt. Seas peak Monday night
at 6-10 ft, and then slowly subside to 4-7 ft Tue and 3-5 ft Wed
and Thu.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL/CEB
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...JME/TL/ZC
MARINE...JME/TL/ZC